Latest poll shows Donald Trump with a sure lead in Florida – Trump certain to be President
Donald J. Trump has slowly but surely improved his standing in state and national polls since the final presidential debate.
A New York Times Upshot/Siena poll released Sunday is consistent with that trend:
It gives Mr. Trump a four-point lead in Florida, 46 percent to 42 percent, in a four-way race. In our first poll of Florida a month ago, Mr. Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by a percentage point.
The survey is Mr. Trump’s best recent poll in Florida, and it should be interpreted with caution. In general, it is best to look at an average of polls. Mrs. Clinton still leads in an average of recent Florida surveys by nearly three points.
But the poll is not the only one to show Mr. Trump in the lead. A Bloomberg/Selzer poll, which is methodologically similar to the New York Times Upshot/Siena poll, showed Mr. Trump with a two-point edge last week.
Mr. Trump, a Republican, has no plausible path to the presidency without Florida’s 29 electoral votes. But his Democratic opponent has many ways to win without the state. Mrs. Clinton would almost certainly win if she carried North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where recent Upshot/Siena polls have shown her with a comfortable advantage.
The poll was taken before the F.B.I. director, James Comey, informed Congress that the bureau had obtained additional information of potential relevance to an investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s emails. National polls ahead of Mr. Comey’s letter showed Mrs. Clinton with a six-point lead, an edge that was somewhat smaller than it was earlier in the month.
Where does this poll fits in with other polls of Florida voters ?
|NYT Upshot/Siena||10/25 – 10/27||
792 Likely Voters
|Saint Leo University||10/22 – 10/26||
1028 Likely Voters
|Bloomberg/Selzer||10/21 – 10/24||
953 Likely Voters
|SurveyMonkey||10/18 – 10/26||
1600 Likely Voters
|SurveyUSA||10/20 – 10/24||
1251 Likely Voters
|UNF||10/20 – 10/25||
819 Likely Voters
|Remington Research Group/Axiom Strategies||10/20 – 10/22||
1600 Likely Voters
|CBS/YouGov||10/20 – 10/21||
1042 Likely Voters
538 Likely Voters
|UPI/CVOTER||10/16 – 10/23||
399 Likely Voters
The poll paints a much rosier picture for Mr. Trump. Across every dimension of the survey, the poll has subtle but good news for his chances. If Mr. Trump won the election, it probably would look a lot like this:
Far greater Republican unity
Mr. Trump won 86 percent of self-identified Republicans — the highest percentage of that group in any Upshot/Siena survey so far this year.
He had the support of 84 percent of registered Republicans, up from 72 percent in September and also the highest of any Upshot/Siena survey this year.
Mr. Trump’s consolidation of Republican-leaning voters is a trend in national surveys, and it comes alongside a corresponding decline in the number of supporters for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, who received just 4 percent of the vote in our survey — the lowest of any Upshot/Siena poll. Republicans have been likelier than Democrats to support Mr. Johnson in most of our polls.
Even college-educated white voters, who have been skeptical of Mr. Trump nationwide, are showing less skepticism in Florida. He has a lead of 51 percent to 35 percent among those voters in our survey.
Clinton weakness among white working-class Democrats
Mr. Trump leads among white voters without a college degree by an impressive margin of 63 percent to 24 percent. He’s so strong that Mrs. Clinton has just 55 percent of the vote among white registered Democrats without a degree, compared with Mr. Trump’s 32 percent.
The combination of Republican unity and a large dissenting vote among registered Democrats is responsible for Mr. Trump’s lead.
Mrs. Clinton actually leads among voters who are unaffiliated with a major party — something that’s been true in all five Upshot surveys: in North Carolina (two surveys), Florida (two) and Pennsylvania (one). In this case, it’s by a 10-point margin.
Our survey is adjusted to have the right number of registered Democrats and Republicans, which is generally a good way to make sure that a sample doesn’t wind up being too Democratic or Republican. Democrats have a one-point registration edge among likely voters.
But because of this large dissenting vote from white working-class registered Democrats, and the unity of registered Republicans, the Republicans have a two-point advantage in voters’ party identification in survey responses.
A Clinton challenge with black voters?
Mrs. Clinton has had nearly unanimous support among black voters in Upshot/Siena surveys, but not in this one: She had a lead of 81 percent to 11 percent. It might not seem like a big deal, but the difference between that support and the 90-1 we saw from black voters in Pennsylvania covers about half of Mr. Trump’s lead.
Mrs. Clinton is competitive among white voters in southeast Florida.
Black voters were more supportive of Mr. Trump than in past surveys.
Republicans tend to do better among Cuban voters in South Florida.
One possibility is that this is random sampling error — we’re talking about seven black respondents who support Mr. Trump in our survey.
But there are at least hints that Mr. Trump may be a tad stronger among black voters in Florida than elsewhere.
Our first Upshot/Siena poll of Florida in September gave Mrs. Clinton a lead of 83 percent to 4 percent among black voters, which was her worst performance among black voters in any of The Upshot’s polls up until now. A recent Selzer poll of Florida also gave Mrs. Clinton a similar lead of 80 percent to 10 percent among black voters.
Mrs. Clinton also had a challenge with black turnout. Voters who indicated on their voter registration form that they were black made up 12.7 percent of the likely electorate, down from 13.9 percent in 2012.
Our North Carolina survey also showed the black share of the electorate dipping by about one point lower than 2012 levels. It’s a pattern that’s consistent with the initial early voting data, which shows lower black turnout than in 2012.
Cubans return to Trump
Mrs. Clinton leads among Hispanic voters by a wide margin of 59 percent to 30 percent in our survey — a tally that’s pretty comparable to most recent Florida polls. But it is better for Mr. Trump than our September survey, when Mrs. Clinton led by a margin of 61 percent to 21 percent.
Here, it is Cuban-American voters who make the difference. In September, Mrs. Clinton had a lead of 41 percent to 33 percent among Cuban voters, with a huge number undecided or supporting a minor-party candidate. Now Mr. Trump leads, 52 percent vs. 42 percent.
Again, these are very small samples. But it’s plausible to imagine Mr. Trump recovering among Cuban voters.
A strong showing among Cuban voters also helped Senator Marco Rubio lead by nine points, 51 percent to 42 percent, against his Democratic challenger, Patrick Murphy. Mr. Murphy led by just two percentage points among Hispanic voters, and Mr. Rubio led by 69-28 among Cuban voters.